Ironman Louisville KQ Analysis...Heat Kills!

In doing research on Kona Qualifying (KQ) standards I came across some unbelievably helpful charts on www.runtri.com.  I must give credit to Raymond Britt who is the publisher of runtri media and took the effort to analyze the finisher data and create these unbelievably useful graphical depictions about what it takes to get to the big dance. If you are a triathlete (and a data nerd) check out his website its pretty awesome.

Below I have "borrowed" two useful graphs about what it took to get to Kona in the 30-34 age group in 2010 as compared to 2011.  The information is particularly helpful because the weather conditions in 2010 were as tough as you can imagine (96 degrees/high humidity) as compared to 2011when the conditions were pretty nice.  When I did Louisville last year, I lucked out with the weather.  The day started overcast and cool for the swim and early stages of the bike.  As the day wore on, the sun came out and the temperature warmed, but only topped out in the upper 80's.  There was never any point in the race where I felt like I was overheating.  During the marathon I didn't even feel like I needed the ice sponges.  In fact after taking the first couple, I remember making a conscious decision to stop because they just weren't useful.

The charts demonstrate how powerful an impact the heat can have on the results.  In 2010 the last M30-34 qualified for Kona in 10:23.  In 2011 the last man in went 9:45!!!! That is 37 minutes faster.  In 2011 there were 6 Kona slots in my age group.  However, I suspect there may be as few as 5 slots this year.  With the increasing number of Ironman races and their popularity, the number of Kona slots is dwindling at each individual race.  It also doesn't help that M30-34 is notoriously one of the toughest age groups!

The bottom line is that I need to be prepared to go sub 10:20 in extreme heat and sub 9:45 in good conditions.  This will be a tall order, but I continue to work my ass off with the hopes that I may be able achieve my goal.  I started training for Ironman on January 1, and my mantra since day one has been :50, 5:15, 3:30.  Nothing has changed and I feel like my training is on track.  I have been working extremely hard and have been pleased with my results thus far.  This week has been my first taste of training in the extreme summer heat.  We have had some brutally hot days this week.  I have handled it fine on the bike, but the run is where the heat really catches up with you.  On Wednesday the temperature topped out near 100 degrees with extremely high humidity.  My workout plan called for a 90 minute run.  I started out the run far too hard for the conditions and really paid the price at the end of the run.  It was a cruel reminder of how much work I have left to do before August.